Sung's Daily Ramblings.: We will all die, so let's have fun.

Did you know that Christmas Eve, numerous astronomers around the world spent the holidays tracking the asteroid 2004 MN4? Why? Because an asteroid discovered on June 19, 2004, went up on the Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Threat level called Torino Scale on December 23rd. It went from 1 to 2! No other asteroid ever reached level 2 on the Torino Scale. The most threatening asteroid were only able to get to level 1 on the Torino Scale. To compound, further observations, tracking and calculations of the asteroid reached its climax on late Christmas Eve, when NASA raised the threat level of 2004 MN4 asteroid to 4 on the Torino Scale! FOUR!

Today, after more observations and calculations, they lowered the asteroid threath level back to 1. Of course there is still a possibility of this asteroid colliding with Earth, but chances are very remote.

"...the possibility of future Earth impacts for some near-Earth objects cannot be entirely ruled out until the uncertainties associated with their trajectories are reduced as a result of either future position observations, or in this case, heretofore unrecognized, pre-discovery observations. When these additional observations were used to update the orbit of 2004 MN4, the uncertainties associated with this object's future positions in space were reduced to such an extent that none of the object's possible trajectories can impact the Earth (or Moon) in 2029. " -NASA.

On the Torino Scale, the threat levels can go up or down as they gather more data. For example, coming closer to the day to its closest approach some kind of gravitational pull or collision with another fragment might alter its course and raise the threat level, or lower, depending which way it goes... It's 28 years away.

So my point is, although chances are highgly unlikely, I'm going to enjoy my life, just in case. hahaha.

THE TORINO IMPACT HAZARD SCALE
Assessing Asteroid And Comet Impact Hazard Predictions In The 21st Century
No Hazard (White Zone)
0
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
Normal (Green Zone)
1
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
Meriting Attention by Astronomers (Yellow Zone)
2
A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
3
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
4
A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
Threatening (Orange Zone)
5
A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contigency planning may be warranted.
6
A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contigency planning may be warranted.
7
A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecendented but still uncertain threat of a global castastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.
Certain Collisions (Red Zone)
8
A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offsore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and oncer per several 1000 years.
9
A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecendented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.
10
A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often

PS: NASA website has very cool stuff there, like Mars Rover (it still running, due to a mysterious battery recharge effect), Cassini-Huygens (recently it released it's Huygens probe, and will plunge into Titan on January 14th), Near Earth Object Program, International Space Station, Hubble Space Telescope, (Hubble Deep Field and Hubble Ultra Deep Field were very interesting projects which took us closest ever to see the Big Bang, and also had many interesting finds. It also provided breathtaking pictures of celestial phenomena and bodies.)etc... I used be a fan of Near Earth Object Program, because it has orbital collision simulator program(the one I used to make the orbital picture below) there where you can run stuff on it, but since nothing ever went beyond level 1, I kind of got bored of it. They also used to have a program that had every single known item(like all satellites, space trash/junk, etc) on earth's orbit tracked on simulation format. Also the ISS tracker program (on ISS site) was cool too back then, I don't think they have it anymore.